Friday, 4 February 2011

Super Bowl XLV Preview and Pick

Originally posted at FanShots

Alright friends, it’s Super Bowl 45 preview time!

That’s right – as of right now (as I’m writing this post) we are 55 hours and 15 minutes away from the scheduled kickoff time in Dallas. Now, I don’t expect that we’ll see the opening kickoff happen at 6:29 pm Est. But it could happen I guess.

I’m very ready for this game to go down. The Packers started the week as 3 point favorites and as of right now they remain 3 point favs at bodog.com. And if that’s the case I’m ready to lock in my money on the Steelers right now. And that, my friends, is because I’m taking the Steelers to win this football game.

I know that I gushed about Aaron Rodgers being the NFL player that I would take 1st overall in a league wide fantasy draft to build a franchise. And I was doubly proud when Troy Aikman said the same thing on national television during the playoffs. There are other facts to consider though. Big Ben Roethlisberger is the man in the playoffs. I don’t care how you feel about him personally because of his off field issues. His 10-2 playoff record is outstanding. His 2 Super Bowl rings are huge. And this is still only his 5th trip to the playoffs.

Outside of believing in Ben’s ability to win the big game, I am relying on the defenses to bring my prediction to fruition. That’s right, both defenses. If this game is tight and hard fought and yards and scores are at a premium I think that things favor the Steelers all night long. But if this game turns into a shootout with both QBs launching balls downfield and defensive backs making risky attempts at interceptions I see things swinging to the Green Bay side of the ledger.

The Pittsburgh D is based on the unit. That’s the way that it’s supposed to be. But in that unit are hard hitting and fine line straddling James Harrison as well as NFL Defensive Player of the Year Troy Polamalu. On the other side of the ball the Packers have Defensive Player of the Year runner-up Clay Matthews who had a huge season. The Packers also have veteran DB Charles Woodson who is no stranger to making big plays at big times in big games. These 4 players are a big part of the reason I think we’ll be seeing a slow and tentative start to the game from both offenses and a lower scoring/bang and crash kind of game.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying that we’re going to be looking at a 7-0 or even a 14-7 game in the end. But I don’t think that we’re going to see a wide open game of last team with the ball wins. The over/under has been hovering around the 45 point number all week. I’ll take the under. I’m seeing this as a game with a final score of 24-17 in favor of the Steelers.

There will be a lot of people who don’t like that pick because they don’t like Ben Roethlisberger. In the end though, that doesn’t matter on the football field.

Good luck with your bets and parties this weekend my friends – It’s the biggest Sunday of the year!

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