So, the time has come to really break down Week 3’s Monday Night Football game between the Green Bay Packers and the Chicago Bears. And ladies and gentlemen I am ready!
After Week 2 both teams have 2-0 records which certainly didn’t make picking this game any easier. I looked at some numbers, looked at some history and looked at some hunches and broke it all down.
Here are my thoughts and some of the numbers:
-Aaron Rodgers is a stud. It’s not a coincidence that he was taken so high in almost every NFL fantasy draft on the planet this year. He has an arm that you can dream on, he’s smart with the ball and he’s becoming a better quarterback every week. The future is bright in Green Bay with Rodgers in the huddle.
-Jay Cutler has been a huge surprise to me this season. His 649 passing yards and 5 touchdowns in the first 2 weeks of the season shock the heck out of me. This is a guy that I didn’t believe in at all but he seems to want to prove me wrong personally this season.
-The Packers are averaging over 30 points a game so far in the young season. That’s a big number. I don’t expect that they will keep that average over 16 games, but a hot start is a hot start. I can’t argue with that.
-Likewise, the Packers defense has been impressive giving up an average of 13.5 points per game. I know that one of those games was against Buffalo, but still. Not a bad start.
-Da Bears are scoring a touchdown less per game at 23 points per game despite the passing numbers that Cutler is putting up. That tells me that the running game is lacking something.
-The Bears are also allowing more points with a 17 point average after the first 2 games of the season. And you can at 3.5 to that number after the disallowed TD catch from Calvin Johnson of the Lions in Week 1.
-Rodgers has a 3-1 record against the Bears since he took over for Brett Favre. And his only loss was a 20-17 squeaker in overtime in Chicago. He looks comfortable playing in the big rivalry match-up.
-Meanwhile, Cutler had 2 losses hung on him last year against the Pack. Not great.
-I love watching Clay Matthews and Al Harris play defense for the Packers.
-I have always loved watching new Bears DE Julius Peppers eat quarterbacks.
-Green Bay place kicker Mason Crosby is 3 for 3 in field goal attempts over 40 yards so far this season in 2 outdoor stadiums.
-Robbie Gould has been perfect in field goal attempts, but his longest so far this season has been 40 yards.
When I take a look at all of this information together and add in my gut feeling the answer starts to become clearer for me.
I don’t believe in Jay Cutler enough in this type of game to keep his big numbers up. I believe in Al Harris’ ability to shut down Johnny Knox in the secondary. And if the game is on the line, on the road, I like Mason Crosby’s chances of knocking in a long field goal to seal the deal.
My pick for Week 3 Monday Night Football is the Green Bay Packers.
Look for them to win outright and improve their record to 3-0.
For all of my NFL picks this week check out the video below and if you disagree with any of them let me know at fanshots.com.
Have a great weekend fans and good luck with your picks!
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